Rate Jitters, AI Momentum, and a Farewell to the Penny
It was another eventful week on Wall Street as investors digested a mixed bag of headlines. The government shutdown finally wrapped up, corporate earnings impressed, and the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom brought both excitement and skepticism. Some investors trimmed risk, others bought the dip, and everyone tried to make sense of what comes next. Here’s a breakdown of the key themes that shaped the markets.
Rate Cut Uncertainty Creeps Back In
Even though the shutdown ended, the White House warned that October’s official inflation and employment numbers may never be released — and that’s a big problem for the Federal Reserve. Without those data points, the Fed has less clarity on whether it's safe to cut interest rates.
Investors were quick to react. The odds of a December rate cut slid from about 72% the previous week to just 50%, according to Bloomberg. Without confirmation that inflation is easing, the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer.
Momentum Stocks Lose Some Steam
For much of the year, momentum investing — especially anything tied to AI — has been the market’s golden child. Rapidly rising prices pushed major indices to new highs, fueled in part by the belief that lower interest rates would support high-growth sectors.
But once rate-cut optimism cooled, investors started rethinking the lofty valuations. AI-linked stocks, while still strong, saw a bit of the shine wear off as traders questioned whether they had run too far, too fast.
Consumer Confidence Hits the Brakes
Americans aren’t feeling great about the economy. November’s reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50.3 — close to its lowest reading in modern history. For context, the index peaked at 111.3 in 2000 and historically averages around 100.
Some worry this gloomy sentiment could dampen holiday shopping. But the National Retail Federation’s chief economist offered a different perspective: consumers mayfeelpessimistic, but they continue to spend. In other words, emotionally cautious but financially capable.
Market Performance at a Glance
The Nasdaq Composite wrapped the week in the red, while both the S&P 500 and Dow managed to close slightly higher. Treasury yields also climbed across most maturities as rate-cut expectations faded.
| Data as of 11/14/25 | 1-Week | Y-T-D | 1-Year | 3-Year | 5-Year | 10-Year |
| Standard & Poor’s 500 Index | 0.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% | 19.4% | 13.2% | 12.6% |
| Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index | 1.2 | 25.1 | 23.7 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| 10-year Treasury Note (yield only) | 4.2 | N/A | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Gold (per ounce) | 1.9 | 55.9 | 58.6 | 32.0 | 16.6 | 14.1 |
| Bloomberg Commodity Index | 1.7 | 10.5 | 13.7 | -2.2 | 8.1 | 2.8 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, and Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. N/A means not applicable.
Saying Goodbye to the Penny—Sort Of
A quiet but symbolic change happened last week: the U.S. Mint pressed its final batch of pennies. Producing a one-cent coin has become anything but economical, costing about 3.69 cents per penny. Ending production is expected to save taxpayers tens of millions of dollars each year.
But that doesn’t mean pennies will vanish overnight. With more than 300 billion already in circulation, we’ll be finding them in drawers, pockets, and parking lots for years. In fact, many retailers are actually strugglingbecause they’re too scarce. Over 1,000 store locations across six national chains recently reported running completely out of pennies.
When that happens, many stores round transactions in favor of customers — a goodwill practice that’s costing retailers millions as those pennies add up.
Cash Still Matters—But It’s Not the Top Choice
Even with the rise of digital payments, cash continues to play an important role in how Americans pay for everyday purchases. It’s especially useful for budgeting and maintaining privacy, and some people simply prefer the control it provides.
However, according to the Federal Reserve’s Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, cash now ranks third behind debit and credit cards. Usage varies significantly by age and income group:
Households earning under $25,000andadults 55+use cash more frequently.
Young adults (18–24)lean heavily into mobile payments, using their phones for nearly half of all their transactions.
As spending habits continue to shift toward digital convenience, cash remains relevant — but no longer dominant.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Beware the small expenses; a small leak will sink a great ship.”
— Warren Buffett